Tunisia’s external finances showed signs of resilience in late 2025, with debt servicing costs falling significantly and key sources of foreign currency recording growth, according to the latest Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) indicators published Friday.
The data, covering the period up to December 20, reveals a 13.8% year-on-year drop in cumulative external debt service, which fell to 12 billion dinars from 14 billion dinars in 2024. The decline points to a relative easing of one major constraint on the country’s external accounts.
The improvement was bolstered by stronger inflows of foreign currency. Remittances from Tunisians abroad—a critical source of hard currency—rose 6% to 8.4 billion dinars. Tourism receipts, another vital pillar, grew by 6.3% to approximately 7.9 billion dinars.
Collectively, these inflows covered 135.9% of the country’s external debt service, a coverage ratio that helped stabilize net foreign currency assets at 25 billion dinars. This level is equivalent to 108 days of imports, a buffer considered adequate by international standards, though vulnerable to external shocks.
Monetary Indicators Reflect Mixed Signals
On the domestic monetary front, the BCT reported a contraction in banks’ overall refinancing volume, which declined to 10.4 billion dinars from 12.1 billion a year earlier. Analysts suggest this could indicate improved banking sector liquidity or a more restrained posture from the central bank.
Interbank market activity remained steady, with a slight 4% increase in exchanges to 3.7 billion dinars.
However, one trend raised questions: the stock of cash in circulation surged by 19% to 26.5 billion dinars. The jump highlights persistent challenges, including a sizable informal economy and a continued public preference for cash transactions, despite national efforts to promote digital payments.
A Balancing Act Persists
While the figures confirm a gradual strengthening of Tunisia’s external balances, driven by remittances and tourism, they also underscore ongoing structural vulnerabilities. The economy remains under significant budgetary and monetary pressure, with the growth in cash circulation underscoring deep-seated habits and informal activity that complicate economic policy.
The overall picture, as framed by the BCT data, is one of fragile improvement—where gains in forex earnings provide crucial breathing room, but underlying weaknesses in the financial system and economy remain largely unaddressed.
TunisianMonitorOnline (NejiMed)
