Tunisia’s economy grew by 2.4% in the first six months of 2026, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS). While agriculture and services drive the performance upward, industry stagnates, and the government’s full-year target of 3.3% remains out of reach at the midway point.
Tunisia’s economy recorded 2.4% growth in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to the first estimates of quarterly national accounts published on August 15 by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
In the second quarter, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume, seasonally adjusted, rose by 2.3% year-on-year, while the quarterly increase reached 1.4% compared to the first quarter of 2026. However, this quarterly rebound contrasts with a slowdown in annual terms: after peaking at 3.4% in the third quarter of 2025, growth has gradually declined to 2.7%, then 2.6%, and now 2.3%.
Agriculture and Services Lead the Growth Engine
The agricultural sector confirms its recovery with a 5.5% increase in added value year-on-year, contributing 0.51 percentage points to overall GDP growth.
Services remain the primary pillar of activity, with a 1.9% rise in added value, bringing 1.18 points to GDP growth. This performance is driven by:
- Hotels, restaurants, and cafés: +4.6%
- Information and communication: +3.5%
- Transport: +1.7%
The construction sector also posted a solid 3.6% increase in the second quarter.
Industry Stalls, Mining and Energy in Crisis
Conversely, the industrial sector as a whole grew by just 0.3% year-on-year. While manufacturing recorded a modest 0.9% increase—driven by miscellaneous industries (+3.7%), agri-food (+2.1%), and mechanical and electrical industries (+1.6%)—the energy, mining, water, and sanitation sector saw its added value decline by 1.7%.
This contraction is mainly attributed to a 9.6% plunge in mining activity and a 1.1% decrease in oil and natural gas extraction.
Domestic Demand Supports Activity, Foreign Trade Weighs Down
On the demand side, domestic demand (consumption and investment) rose by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing a positive 3.61 percentage points to growth.
In contrast, foreign trade exerted a negative effect of -1.33 percentage points on growth. Although exports of goods and services increased by 10.4%, imports grew even faster (+11.2%), widening the trade deficit.
Is the Full-Year Target of 3.3% Out of Reach?
The State budget for 2026 is based on an assumed growth rate of 3.3% for the entire year. At the halfway mark, with cumulative growth at 2.4%, the Tunisian economy would need to significantly accelerate in the second half to meet this objective.
Tunisia’s economy recorded 2.4% growth in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year, according to the first estimates of quarterly national accounts published on August 15 by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
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