As geopolitical tensions and supply chain crises strain the world’s critical fertilizer industry, a strategic project in Tunisia is emerging as a potential counterweight to global market concentration. The PhosCo Gasaat phosphate project highlights the growing significance of North Africa’s vast deposits, a region holding the keys to both global food security and the materials needed for green technology.
A Precarious Global Supply Chain
The global phosphate market is built on a fragile foundation, with 90% of reserves controlled by just five nations. Recent export restrictions from major producers like Russia and China have exposed dangerous vulnerabilities, particularly for import-dependent regions like Europe and Australia. Prices have more than doubled since 2020, soaring from approximately $70 to over $150 per tonne, directly impacting agricultural costs worldwide.
“This isn’t just a fertilizer issue anymore,” industry analysts note. “It’s a systemic risk to food systems and, increasingly, to the battery supply chain.”
Beyond Fertilizer: The EV Connection
While 90% of phosphate still feeds the world’s crops, its role is expanding. A significant portion of electric vehicles now rely on Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, creating a new and growing demand stream that promises to reshape the market long-term.
Tunisia’s Strategic Renaissance
Into this strained market steps Tunisia, a historically significant producer aiming to reclaim its position. The Gasaat project, the first phosphate mining permit granted to a foreign company by the Tunisian government, signals a policy shift. Benefits include a five-year corporate tax holiday and the presence of major international firms like Shell and TotalEnergies, suggesting improving investment conditions.
The project itself boasts a large, high-grade resource—146 million tonnes at 20.6% P₂O₅—with a planned 50-year mine life that far exceeds industry averages. A 2022 scoping study projected robust economics, including a potential 54% internal rate of return.
The European Link and Institutional Backing
Strategically located near rail and the Port of Rades, Gasaat is positioned to serve European markets desperate for diversified supply. This strategic value is underscored by the involvement of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which has provided a formal mandate and co-financing for studies.
“EBRD backing is more than just funding,” a sector report observes. “It’s a de-risking exercise that validates the project’s technical merit and mitigates political risk for other investors.”
Catalysts and Risks Ahead
Key milestones for the project include a maiden resource estimate for its KM prospect targeted for early 2026 and ongoing bankable feasibility work. However, challenges remain, including execution risk in an emerging market, future phosphate price volatility, and the logistical coordination required with Tunisian infrastructure.
The Gasaat project underscores a broader reality: as global powers grapple for control of critical resources, North Africa’s phosphate deposits have moved from agricultural concern to strategic necessity. Their development will play a crucial role in determining the stability of food and technology supply chains for decades to come.
TunisianMonitorOnline (NejiMed)
