In a promising sign for the Tunisian economy, the nation’s inflation rate continued its downward trajectory in September, easing to 5% and marking its lowest point since the end of 2021, according to official data released Sunday.
The report from the National Statistics Institute (INS) confirms a steady disinflationary trend over the summer. The September figure of 5.0% represents a slight dip from the 5.2% recorded in August and a more significant retreat from July’s 5.3%. This consistent decline is being closely watched by markets and policymakers, raising expectations that the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) may soon pivot towards a more growth-oriented monetary policy.
The gradual easing of price pressures offers a measure of relief for households and businesses that have been grappling with a prolonged cost-of-living crisis. While inflation remains above historical averages, its sustained retreat from the peaks witnessed in recent years suggests that the central bank’s tight monetary stance, combined with government measures to stabilize supply chains, is having the intended effect.
The data has immediately shifted focus to the central bank’s upcoming policy meeting later this month. For over a year, the BCT has held its key interest rate at a record high of 8.0% in a aggressive campaign to curb inflation. The sustained drop in the inflation rate is now fueling strong speculation that policymakers could vote for a cut, which would be the first in this cycle.
A reduction in the benchmark rate would lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially stimulating investment and spending in an economy that has been stifled by tight credit conditions. However, analysts caution that the bank will likely proceed with caution.
As Tunisians feel a tentative easing of financial pressure, all eyes will be on the central bank’s decision, a move that will signal the next phase in the nation’s delicate economic recovery.
TunisianMonitorOnline (NejiMed)
