After years of economic strain, Tunisia’s economy registered a clear, if fragile, recovery in 2025, with growth accelerating and key indicators like inflation and unemployment retreating, according to official data and international assessments.
Tunisia posted a growth rate of 2.4% for the first nine months of the year, with full-year projections reaching approximately 2.6%—a significant increase from 1.4% in 2024. This gradual stabilization follows a prolonged slump exacerbated by the pandemic, political shifts, and tight global financial conditions.
The rebound was driven by standout performances in several core sectors. A strong agricultural season, marked by a 9.8% rise in value added led by olive oil and dates, boosted exports and rural incomes. The tourism sector staged a full recovery, with arrivals surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels and revenues climbing to nearly $2 billion, aided by security stability and diversification into niche offerings like ecological tourism.
Industrial output grew by 3.4%, fueled in part by a dramatic 55% rebound in phosphate production during the first half of the year, resolving years of disruptive labor and logistical issues.
“The policy approach focused on maintaining financial balances while supporting domestic sources of growth,” officials stated, emphasizing sectoral recovery over broad fiscal stimulus due to persistent budget and financing constraints.
This measured strategy coincided with improving macroeconomic conditions. Inflation eased to 4.9%, allowing the Central Bank of Tunisia to cut its key interest rate to 7.5%, providing some credit relief to businesses. Foreign direct investment surged by 28.1%, and foreign exchange reserves strengthened, contributing to a modest appreciation of the dinar and improved sovereign credit outlooks from international rating agencies.
The government continued structural adjustments in 2025, including tax and subsidy reforms and enhanced social support targeting. Looking ahead, authorities have set an ambitious 3.3% growth target for 2026, anchored by a new five-year development plan prioritizing decentralization and higher value-added sectors.
The central question for policymakers is whether this hard-won macroeconomic stabilization can now be translated into durable job creation and structural resilience, particularly for Tunisia’s youth, within a still-constrained global and domestic environment.
TunisianMonitorOnline (NejiMed)
