Tunisia’s economy is projected to accelerate in 2025, according to a recent World Bank report, but this fragile recovery remains clouded by a persistent stalemate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and significant domestic challenges.
In its October 7 regional economic update, the World Bank forecasted Tunisia’s growth to reach 2.6% in 2025, a notable increase from the projected 1.4% in 2024. The report attributes the near-term rebound primarily to a stronger agricultural sector, buoyed by improved production of olive oil and cereals.
This follows a period of stagnation, as the economy posted zero growth in 2023 before beginning its tentative recovery this year.
However, the brighter outlook is tempered by longstanding uncertainties. The World Bank expects growth to moderate to an average of 2.4% for the 2026-2027 period, citing tighter financial conditions that will weigh on economic activity.
The most significant overhang on the economy remains the deadlock in negotiations for a $1.9 billion IMF bailout package. Talks have been stalled since 2023 after the government refused to implement reforms demanded by the international lender, including cuts to food and energy subsidies. This impasse has raised acute concerns over the country’s ability to meet its external financing needs and service its public debt.
This “complex policy and financing environment,” as described by Tunisia’s National Institute of Statistics (INS), continues to constrain the economy. The INS recently reported that the economy grew by 3.2% in the second quarter of 2025. Despite this strong quarterly figure, the agency cautioned that regulatory barriers to investment are holding back the potential for sustained, long-term growth.
Further illustrating the fragility of the recovery, the INS stated that the nation’s full-year GDP growth could reach 1.9% in 2025—below the World Bank’s projection—but only if climatic conditions are favorable and the manufacturing industry stages a gradual recovery. The economy’s momentum in 2024 was already limited by drought, weak domestic demand, and the pervasive uncertainty over external financing.
The data presents a dual narrative: while key sectors like agriculture and tourism are driving a statistical recovery, the underlying structural issues and the unresolved IMF deal continue to cast a long shadow over Tunisia’s economic future.
TunisianMonitorOnline (WB)
