Tunisia’s ability to meet 2024-2025 external debt obligations has improved, with a lower current account deficit strengthening international reserves beyond Fitch Ratings’ previous expectations, Fitch said on Thursday.
The international credit rating agency forecast that reserves will remain above three months of current external payments through 2026. This should enable Tunisia to continue to service its external debt obligations, supported by inflows of external financing, despite the absence of an IMF programme.
Fitch expects fiscal financing needs, excluding short-term amortisations, to be 18% of GDP in 2024 and to remain above 14% of GDP over 2025-2026. This is well above the 2015-2019 average of 9% and is among the highest levels of peers rated ‘CCC+’ and below.
The high financing needs stem from persistently wide budget deficit, high long-term domestic debt maturities, ands external debt maturities of about 11% of GDP in 2024.
Fitch expects Tunisia to receive USD 3.4 billion in external financing commitments in 2024. It estimates cash disbursements of USD1.4 billion in 2024, resulting in net external financing outflows of USD1.7 billion (3.2% of estimated 2024 GDP). The persistent external support and falling external amortisations should allow Tunisia to balance its net external financing by 2026.
TunisianMonitorOnline (NejiMed)
