International ratings agency Fitch has upgraded the credit ratings of two major Tunisian banks, Union Bancaire pour le Commerce et l’Industrie (UBCI) and Arab Tunisian Bank (ATB), citing an improved operating environment following a recent upgrade of the Tunisian government’s own rating.
The decision signals a cautiously optimistic view of the Tunisian banking sector’s stability amid broader economic challenges.
Key Takeaways:
- UBCI Upgrade: UBCI saw its Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) raised to ‘B-‘ from ‘CCC+’, with a Stable Outlook. Its Viability Rating (VR) was also upgraded to ‘b-‘ from ‘ccc+’.
- ATB Affirmation and Upgrade: ATB’s Long-Term IDRs were affirmed at ‘B-‘ with a Stable Outlook, while its standalone Viability Rating was upgraded to ‘ccc+’ from ‘ccc’.
- BTK Unchanged: The ratings for Banque Tuniso-Koweitienne (BTK) were affirmed at ‘CCC-‘ with a Viability Rating of ‘ccc-‘.
- Sovereign Link: The moves directly follow Fitch’s upgrade of Tunisia’s sovereign rating to ‘B-‘ on September 12, 2025. The agency revised the score for the country’s banking operating environment upward, noting the close ties between banks’ health and the state’s creditworthiness.
Rationale Behind the Ratings
According to Fitch, the credit profiles of Tunisian banks are heavily influenced by the government’s financial health. Banks maintain significant exposure to the state through holdings of government securities, deposits with the Central Bank of Tunisia, and loans to state-owned enterprises. By the end of 2024, the banking sector’s exposure to the sovereign reached 20% of total assets, even excluding loans to state-owned companies.
The improved outlook also considers expectations for gradual economic improvement. Fitch forecasts Tunisia’s real GDP growth to accelerate slightly to 1.5% in 2026, up from an estimated 1.4% in 2025. Inflation is projected to continue its decline, averaging 5.5% in 2026 compared to 6.0% this year.
The National Ratings for all three banks, which measure creditworthiness relative to other Tunisian issuers, were unaffected by today’s announcement.
TunisianMonitorOnline (Editorial Staff – Fitch)
