Tunisia’s sovereign credit rating has been reaffirmed at “B-” with a Stable Outlook by Fitch Ratings, signaling the agency’s view that the country’s elevated credit risk is currently contained.
In a move reflecting its updated analytical framework, the major credit assessor also removed Tunisia from its Under Criteria Observation (UCO) list. The change follows the publication of a revised methodology in September 2025 that formally incorporates recovery assumptions into sovereign debt assessments. Under this new model, Fitch assigned Tunisia an “RR4” recovery rating, indicating creditors could expect a moderate recovery of value in a hypothetical default scenario.
The affirmed rating suggests Tunisia’s ability to meet its financial commitments remains challenged but stable for now. However, Fitch outlined a clear path required for any future improvement. Key conditions include a sustained reduction of the fiscal deficit, a reversal of the country’s high debt-to-GDP trajectory, the implementation of stronger economic policies, and the continued build-up of foreign exchange reserves.
Analysts note that the Stable Outlook implies no immediate change to the rating is expected, but future movements will be closely tied to the government’s progress on these fiscal and economic fronts, which directly impact the nation’s borrowing costs and investor confidence.
TunisianMonitorOnline (Fitch-Editorial Staff)
